Region Results for ru_enlargeP-STVplus (2011 Data)

This page presents an analysis of each region -- the number of seats each party received in the region, the number they should have received, and various percentages.

The statistics are presented twice for models that have top-up seats in the region -- once that excludes the top-up seats and once including them. This enables us to see the effect of including the top-up seats in the model.

Models that do not include top-up seats (FPTP, AV, STV) only present the statistics once.

The FPTP and AV electoral models don't even have the concept of a region. In those cases the "regions" are the provinces.

R_AB.North R_AB.South R_BC.IntNorthIsland R_BC.LowerMain R_MB R_NB R_NL R_NS R_NT R_NU R_ON.Eastern R_ON.GTA R_ON.Northern R_ON.SouthCentral R_ON.Western R_PEI R_QC.Eastern R_QC.MonCentral R_QC.MonWestL R_SK R_YT

Region: R_AB.North

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	421,365	66.2%	11	84.6%	18.4%	11	68.8%	2.5%
NDP	119,026	18.7%	2	15.4%	-3.3%	3	18.8%	0.0%
Lib	45,700	7.2%	0	0.0%	-7.2%	1	6.3%	-0.9%
Grn	27,797	4.4%	0	0.0%	-4.4%	1	6.3%	1.9%
Ind	16,556	2.6%	0	0.0%	-2.6%	0	0.0%	-2.6%
Total Number of MPs:			13			16
Gallagher Index:			14.61			3.02

Topup Seats: (3)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Battle River-Crowfoot, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Manning, Edmonton Mill Woods, Edmonton Riverbend, Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton West, Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, Lakeland, Peace River-Westlock

Region: R_AB.South

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	511,400	67.3%	13	86.7%	19.4%	13	72.2%	4.9%
NDP	115,704	15.2%	2	13.3%	-1.9%	2	11.1%	-4.1%
Lib	83,610	11.0%	0	0.0%	-11.0%	2	11.1%	0.1%
Grn	45,261	6.0%	0	0.0%	-6.0%	1	5.6%	-0.4%
Total Number of MPs:			15			18
Gallagher Index:			16.35			4.55

Topup Seats: (3)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Banff-Airdrie, Bow river, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Forest Lawn, Calgary Heritage, Calgary Midnapore, Calgary Nose Hill, Calgary Rocky Ridge, Calgary Shepard, Calgary Signal Hill, Calgary Skyview, Foothills, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner

Region: R_BC.IntNorthIsland

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	361,045	47.0%	7	50.0%	3.0%	7	43.8%	-3.3%
NDP	234,139	30.5%	5	35.7%	5.2%	5	31.3%	0.7%
Lib	82,541	10.8%	1	7.1%	-3.6%	2	12.5%	1.7%
Grn	81,975	10.7%	1	7.1%	-3.5%	2	12.5%	1.8%
Total Number of MPs:			14			16
Gallagher Index:			5.56			3.01

Topup Seats: (2)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cariboo-Prince George, Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola, Courtenay-Alberni, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Kelowna-Lake Country, Kootenay-Columbia, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, North Okanagan-Shuswap, Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Skeena-Bulkley Valley, South Okanagan-West Kootenay

Region: R_BC.LowerMain

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	492,227	44.5%	10	45.5%	0.9%	12	46.2%	1.6%
NDP	374,963	33.9%	9	40.9%	7.0%	9	34.6%	0.7%
Lib	168,722	15.3%	3	13.6%	-1.6%	4	15.4%	0.1%
Grn	61,794	5.6%	0	0.0%	-5.6%	1	3.8%	-1.7%
Total Number of MPs:			22			26
Gallagher Index:			6.47			1.77

Topup Seats: (4)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Abbotsford, Burnaby North-Seymour, Burnaby South, Chilliwack-Hope, Cloverdale-Langley City, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Langley-Aldergrove, Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon, New Westminster-Burnaby, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Richmond Centre, South Surrey-White Rock, Steveston-Richmond East, Surrey Centre, Surrey-Newton, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Vancouver Granville

Region: R_MB

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	262,941	53.5%	9	64.3%	10.8%	9	56.3%	2.7%
NDP	126,639	25.8%	3	21.4%	-4.4%	4	25.0%	-0.8%
Lib	81,417	16.6%	2	14.3%	-2.3%	3	18.8%	2.2%
Grn	17,738	3.6%	0	0.0%	-3.6%	0	0.0%	-3.6%
Total Number of MPs:			14			16
Gallagher Index:			8.75			3.60

Topup Seats: (2)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Brandon-Souris, Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa, Elmwood-Transcona, Kildonan-St. Paul, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman, Winnipeg Centre, Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre

Region: R_NB

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	170,420	43.8%	5	50.0%	6.2%	5	45.5%	1.6%
NDP	115,830	29.8%	3	30.0%	0.2%	3	27.3%	-2.5%
Lib	87,871	22.6%	2	20.0%	-2.6%	3	27.3%	4.7%
Grn	12,317	3.2%	0	0.0%	-3.2%	0	0.0%	-3.2%
Total Number of MPs:			10			11
Gallagher Index:			5.25			4.53

Topup Seats: (1)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Acadie-Bathurst, Beauséjour, Fredericton, Fundy Royal, Madawaska-Restigouche, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, New Brunswick Southwest, Saint John-Rothesay, Tobique-Mactaquac

Region: R_NL

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Lib	82,344	37.9%	5	71.4%	33.5%	5	62.5%	24.6%
NDP	70,868	32.6%	2	28.6%	-4.0%	2	25.0%	-7.6%
Con	61,562	28.3%	0	0.0%	-28.3%	1	12.5%	-15.8%
Total Number of MPs:			7			8
Gallagher Index:			31.18			21.39

Topup Seats: (1)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Avalon, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, Labrador, Long Range Mountains, St. John's East, St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Region: R_NS

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	165,818	36.7%	5	45.5%	8.7%	5	38.5%	1.7%
NDP	136,620	30.3%	2	18.2%	-12.1%	4	30.8%	0.5%
Lib	130,577	28.9%	4	36.4%	7.4%	4	30.8%	1.8%
Grn	17,808	3.9%	0	0.0%	-3.9%	0	0.0%	-3.9%
Total Number of MPs:			11			13
Gallagher Index:			12.10			3.33

Topup Seats: (2)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cape Breton-Canso, Central Nova, Cumberland-Colchester, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax, Halifax West, Kings-Hants, Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, South Shore-St. Margarets, Sydney-Victoria, West Nova

Region: R_NT

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
NDP	7,140	45.8%	1	100.0%	54.2%	1	100.0%	54.2%
Con	5,001	32.1%	0	0.0%	-32.1%	0	0.0%	-32.1%
Lib	2,872	18.4%	0	0.0%	-18.4%	0	0.0%	-18.4%
Grn	477	3.1%	0	0.0%	-3.1%	0	0.0%	-3.1%
Total Number of MPs:			1			1
Gallagher Index:			46.44			46.44

Topup Seats: (0)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Northwest Territories

Region: R_NU

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	3,930	49.9%	1	100.0%	50.1%	1	100.0%	50.1%
Lib	2,260	28.7%	0	0.0%	-28.7%	0	0.0%	-28.7%
NDP	1,525	19.4%	0	0.0%	-19.4%	0	0.0%	-19.4%
Grn	160	2.0%	0	0.0%	-2.0%	0	0.0%	-2.0%
Total Number of MPs:			1			1
Gallagher Index:			43.08			43.08

Topup Seats: (0)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Nunavut

Region: R_ON.Eastern

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	426,520	42.9%	10	52.6%	9.7%	10	45.5%	2.6%
NDP	268,337	27.0%	6	31.6%	4.6%	6	27.3%	0.3%
Lib	260,045	26.1%	3	15.8%	-10.4%	6	27.3%	1.1%
Grn	33,669	3.4%	0	0.0%	-3.4%	0	0.0%	-3.4%
Total Number of MPs:			19			22
Gallagher Index:			10.84			3.13

Topup Seats: (3)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Bay of Quinte, Carleton, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Kanata-Carleton, Kingston and the Islands, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Nepean, Northumberland-Peterborough South, Orléans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa West-Nepean, Ottawa-Vanier, Peterborough-Kawartha, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

Region: R_ON.GTA

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	1,118,252	45.4%	21	46.7%	1.3%	25	46.3%	0.9%
NDP	611,127	24.8%	11	24.4%	-0.4%	14	25.9%	1.1%
Lib	605,839	24.6%	13	28.9%	4.3%	13	24.1%	-0.5%
Grn	97,846	4.0%	0	0.0%	-4.0%	2	3.7%	-0.3%
Total Number of MPs:			45			54
Gallagher Index:			4.29			1.26

Topup Seats: (9)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Ajax, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Beaches-East York, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Dufferin-Caledon, Durham, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Milton, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, Oakville North-Burlington, Oshawa, Parkdale-High Park, Pickering-Uxbridge, Richmond Hill, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Spadina-Fort York, Thornhill, Toronto-St. Paul's

Region: R_ON.Northern

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	121,993	39.4%	2	25.0%	-14.4%	3	33.3%	-6.0%
NDP	106,751	34.5%	4	50.0%	15.5%	4	44.4%	10.0%
Lib	67,719	21.9%	2	25.0%	3.1%	2	22.2%	0.4%
Grn	11,348	3.7%	0	0.0%	-3.7%	0	0.0%	-3.7%
Total Number of MPs:			8			9
Gallagher Index:			15.36			8.66

Topup Seats: (1)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Kenora, Nickel Belt, Nipissing-Timiskaming, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North

Region: R_ON.SouthCentral

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	374,513	43.4%	8	47.1%	3.7%	9	45.0%	1.6%
NDP	232,376	26.9%	5	29.4%	2.5%	5	25.0%	-1.9%
Lib	221,704	25.7%	4	23.5%	-2.2%	5	25.0%	-0.7%
Grn	28,921	3.4%	0	0.0%	-3.4%	1	5.0%	1.6%
Total Number of MPs:			17			20
Gallagher Index:			4.22			2.19

Topup Seats: (3)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Brantford-Brant, Burlington, Cambridge, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Kitchener-Conestoga, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, St. Catharines

Region: R_ON.Western

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	416,185	46.2%	8	47.1%	0.8%	9	45.0%	-1.2%
Lib	244,995	27.2%	5	29.4%	2.2%	6	30.0%	2.8%
NDP	198,844	22.1%	4	23.5%	1.4%	4	20.0%	-2.1%
Grn	35,651	4.0%	0	0.0%	-4.0%	1	5.0%	1.0%
Total Number of MPs:			17			20
Gallagher Index:			3.41			2.72

Topup Seats: (3)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Huron-Bruce, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, London North Centre, London West, London-Fanshawe, Oxford, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Perth-Wellington, Sarnia-Lambton, Simcoe North, Simcoe-Grey

Region: R_PEI

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	32,548	41.2%	2	50.0%	8.8%	2	40.0%	-1.2%
Lib	32,380	41.0%	2	50.0%	9.0%	2	40.0%	-1.0%
NDP	12,135	15.4%	0	0.0%	-15.4%	1	20.0%	4.6%
Grn	1,895	2.4%	0	0.0%	-2.4%	0	0.0%	-2.4%
Total Number of MPs:			4			5
Gallagher Index:			14.16			3.85

Topup Seats: (1)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Cardigan, Charlottetown, Egmont, Malpeque

Region: R_QC.Eastern

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
NDP	580,851	44.2%	18	69.2%	25.0%	18	60.0%	15.8%
Bloc	291,226	22.2%	2	7.7%	-14.5%	5	16.7%	-5.5%
Con	202,171	15.4%	2	7.7%	-7.7%	3	10.0%	-5.4%
Lib	185,809	14.1%	4	15.4%	1.2%	4	13.3%	-0.8%
Grn	27,469	2.1%	0	0.0%	-2.1%	0	0.0%	-2.1%
Ind	22,718	1.7%	0	0.0%	-1.7%	0	0.0%	-1.7%
Total Number of MPs:			26			30
Gallagher Index:			21.25			12.58

Topup Seats: (4)

Bloc
Bloc
Bloc
Con

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, Beauce, Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix, Beauport-Limoilou, Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Berthier-Maskinongé, Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Compton-Stanstead, Drummond, Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Jonquière, Lac-Saint-Jean, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Lévis-Lotbinière, Manicouagan, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Mégantic-L'Érable, Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Québec, Richmond-Arthabaska, Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques, Saint-Maurice-Champlain, Sherbrooke

Region: R_QC.MonCentral

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
NDP	633,967	42.6%	15	50.0%	7.4%	15	44.1%	1.5%
Bloc	358,825	24.1%	7	23.3%	-0.8%	8	23.5%	-0.6%
Con	237,347	16.0%	3	10.0%	-6.0%	5	14.7%	-1.2%
Lib	220,462	14.8%	5	16.7%	1.8%	5	14.7%	-0.1%
Grn	32,159	2.2%	0	0.0%	-2.2%	1	2.9%	0.8%
Total Number of MPs:			30			34
Gallagher Index:			7.03			1.55

Topup Seats: (4)

Con
Con
Bloc
Grn

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Alfred-Pellan, Beloeil-Chambly, Bourassa, Brome-Missisquoi, Brossard-Saint-Lambert, Châteauguay-Lacolle, Hochelaga, Honoré-Mercier, Joliette, La Pointe-de-l'Île, La Prairie, Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Laval-Les Îles, Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne, Longueuil-Saint-Hubert, Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Montarville, Montcalm, Outremont, Papineau, Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères, Repentigny, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint-Jean, Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel, Salaberry-Suroît, Shefford, Terrebonne

Region: R_QC.MonWestL

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
NDP	416,047	41.6%	11	57.9%	16.3%	11	50.0%	8.4%
Bloc	241,374	24.1%	3	15.8%	-8.3%	5	22.7%	-1.4%
Con	188,443	18.8%	2	10.5%	-8.3%	3	13.6%	-5.2%
Lib	132,176	13.2%	3	15.8%	2.6%	3	13.6%	0.4%
Grn	20,774	2.1%	0	0.0%	-2.1%	0	0.0%	-2.1%
Total Number of MPs:			19			22
Gallagher Index:			14.41			7.22

Topup Seats: (3)

Bloc
Con
Bloc

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation, Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Lac-Saint-Louis, Laurentides-Labelle, Mirabel, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Pontiac, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, Rivière-du-Nord, Saint-Laurent, Thérèse-De Blainville, Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Region: R_SK

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	256,167	56.3%	10	71.4%	15.1%	10	62.5%	6.2%
NDP	147,214	32.3%	3	21.4%	-10.9%	5	31.3%	-1.1%
Lib	38,743	8.5%	1	7.1%	-1.4%	1	6.3%	-2.3%
Grn	12,045	2.6%	0	0.0%	-2.6%	0	0.0%	-2.6%
Total Number of MPs:			14			16
Gallagher Index:			13.37			5.10

Topup Seats: (2)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Battlefords-Lloydminster, Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Moose Jaw-Lake Centre-Lanigan, Prince Albert, Regina-Lewvan, Regina-Qu'Appelle, Regina-Wascana, Saskatoon West, Saskatoon-Grasswood, Saskatoon-University, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville

Region: R_YT

			Ridings Only			Ridings + Top-up
Party	Popular Votes	Pct Votes	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep	Elected MPs	Pct Elected MPs	Over Rep
Con	5,422	33.8%	0	0.0%	-33.8%	0	0.0%	-33.8%
Lib	5,290	32.9%	1	100.0%	67.1%	1	100.0%	67.1%
Grn	3,037	18.9%	0	0.0%	-18.9%	0	0.0%	-18.9%
NDP	2,308	14.4%	0	0.0%	-14.4%	0	0.0%	-14.4%
Total Number of MPs:			1			1
Gallagher Index:			55.68			55.68

Topup Seats: (0)

Constituent 2015 Ridings

Yukon